- Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:37 pm
#8368
Hi guys------- Please bear with me on this and read through to the end}-----Just been having an interesting discussion about the need for accuracy when calculating growth....I think most of you will know the old story about a Chinese worker asking for his wages to be doubled every month, starting with an initial payment of 1 grain of rice ??......How many grains of rice will he have in total at the end of a year ??............Apparently this is called Exponential Growth or Expantion but is there a mathematical formula to work out the answers ???............
."What has this to do with my faithfull Bullet?" you might ask......OK, take the new twin that's about to be launched and let's suppose that the MD at Enfield HQ in a moment of sheer optimism commits the factory to doubling the output month-on-month for the first year, starting with just one machine..... Well, the materials procurement department will want to know well in advance so that they can match the arrival of steel, Aluminium, plastics, sub-contracted items, etc to the flow of the production line, which in itself will have to be jacked-up each month to cope.......... The Personnel Department will be having a logistics nightmare of their own where at the outset there was enough people to produce one unit ( Bike ) in a month----- but by the end of the year may well have seen the entire workforce doubled and gone onto 24 Hr , 7 day week working in order to cope !!..............Then there's the storage and delivery, sales etc.. etc....And don't forget the Corporate Tax to be paid based on output and / or sales and from that comes the half-yearly returns for the investors information......So, is there some sort of mathematical equation such that the figures can be calculated for any one particular time in the year ahead ???.............................Incidentally, doing it the hard way, month 6 sees 32 bikes produced with a rolling total of}----- 63 produced whilst month 12 sees 2,048 in that month with a grand total of}----4,095 bikes total in the first year.
."What has this to do with my faithfull Bullet?" you might ask......OK, take the new twin that's about to be launched and let's suppose that the MD at Enfield HQ in a moment of sheer optimism commits the factory to doubling the output month-on-month for the first year, starting with just one machine..... Well, the materials procurement department will want to know well in advance so that they can match the arrival of steel, Aluminium, plastics, sub-contracted items, etc to the flow of the production line, which in itself will have to be jacked-up each month to cope.......... The Personnel Department will be having a logistics nightmare of their own where at the outset there was enough people to produce one unit ( Bike ) in a month----- but by the end of the year may well have seen the entire workforce doubled and gone onto 24 Hr , 7 day week working in order to cope !!..............Then there's the storage and delivery, sales etc.. etc....And don't forget the Corporate Tax to be paid based on output and / or sales and from that comes the half-yearly returns for the investors information......So, is there some sort of mathematical equation such that the figures can be calculated for any one particular time in the year ahead ???.............................Incidentally, doing it the hard way, month 6 sees 32 bikes produced with a rolling total of}----- 63 produced whilst month 12 sees 2,048 in that month with a grand total of}----4,095 bikes total in the first year.
